Thursday, March 16, 2017

The Underachieving Nor'easter of 2017

New Rule of Thumb:

Take the number of inches of snow weather forecasters predict and cut it in half.

That’s how much snow you’ll get.

In my town, right in the path of superstorm Stella, we got eight inches, with drifts up to two feet. Not the eighteen-to-twenty-four weathermen were panicking over (rather, trying to panic us over). I get the whole “better safe than sorry” thing, but this is starting to be ridiculous. When a big storm truly hits no one will believe them, and that’s when we’ll all be sorry.

So according to my new rule, I should’ve expected ten to twelve inches of snow, still 25-50% more than we received. I’ve rationalized this in two ways.

First, I derive the “cut in half” new rule of thumb based on two points:

1) Weather forecasters in the media have a vested interest in overstating their predictions: Fear = Profits. The more fear they dish out, the more we’ll be watching to know more to be prepared; and

2) Weather forecasters are generally wrong as often as they are right.

Second, why I’m okay with the “cut in half” rule still being an overestimate:

1) I want to be prepared regardless for the rare time of true emergency; and

2) Point #2 above is anecdotal.

So, Weather Channel, Accu-Weather, National Weather Service, et. al., you are all on notice. Please continue to overhype future storms and spread the fear and panic. Because Hopper now cuts all your predictions in half.

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