Tuesday, October 6, 2009

Dismal Science


Found ten pages of notes from what must have been an economics class I probably took fifteen years ago (yes, I am a pack rat). Interesting. Economics was always something I felt I should know more about. In fact, I think anyone who goes into a voting booth should know something about it. At least a working knowledge. Sadly, I believe the common man is a complete ignoramus in this area. I’d guess maybe one in a hundred really grasps the subject, and one in ten can follow a cable business show with interest. Too pessimistic a guess? Maybe. But I throw myself in with the ignorami.

I found a couple of interesting factoids from my notes. Care for a few? All right. Since I don’t remember the source, and with all “factoids” of an economic nature, take with whole shakersful of salt:

Economists have proved notoriously inept at predicting upturns and downturns in the business cycle.

Ya think?

Half of all unemployed Americans find new jobs in less than seven weeks. Only about fifteen percent face unemployment spells longer than six months.

Bottom fifteen, welcome your newest member.

Why does discretionary fiscal policy (a.k.a. government spending) often fail?
1. Government is notoriously bad at forecasting
2. Government takes a long time to act
3. Spending plans often favor groups with the most political power
4. New deficit spending pushes up interest rates, crowding out private-sector investment
5. By pushing up interest rates, spending can push up exchange rate of currency
6. People may save extra money instead of spending it

Is there any way to take our money out of our politicians’ hands without devolving into some type of Soviet-style central planning machine?

Friedman and Phelps found that ultimately government spending to cut the unemployment rate only pushes prices up and does not push unemployment down.

They discovered this when? In the 1970s? Does anyone besides me get a sense of déjà vu reading this?

Congress created the Fed in 1913 to ensure geographic diversity and independence from politics. The Fed Chairman is appointed by the president every four years, but not in sync with the presidency. Seven governors, elected for 14-year terms, come from twelve districts throughout the country. A district can only be represented by one governor at a time.

Interesting esoterica. Now you know something that less than one percent of the population knows.

Hayek: governments cannot possibly gather enough information from throughout the world to intelligently choose prices. In contrast, market players do not need to know anything other than price in order to make their choice.

So … get rid of rent control, and don’t scapegoat the oil companies (ooh, I hope that sentiment doesn’t get me tarred-n-feathered. Remember, I’m one of the glorious, noble poor!).

Advertising expenditures in the US have remained a remarkably stable 2 percent of GDP ever since Franklin Roosevelt ran for president.

That’s very interesting. I wonder if the trend’s continued over the past fifteen years or so.

People take better care of private property than public property. Even Aristotle complained that communal property always looked worse than private lands.

Best argument I’ve heard for the alleged inviolable right to own property.

Circa the mid-90s the British controlled about 2 percent of US GDP, while the Japanese controlled 1.5 percent and the Dutch 1.2. However, the US controlled 7 percent of the UK economy, 8 percent of the Dutch, and 0.7 percent of the Japanese.

More interesting figures. Look at those Dutch! Who’d have suspected them – it’s always the quiet ones you gotta worry about. Wonder what the most recent figures are.

60 percent of Americans have savings accounts, 20 percent own individual stocks, 20 percent have certificates of deposit, 11 percent have mutual funds, 8 percent own bonds. Over 60 percent of American families have invested in their homes, which comes to about one-third of their wealth.

Check, no check, used-to-be-a-check, check, no check, check. I think. I may be in the process of being swindled. I’ll have to look into it and get back to you.

Entrepreneurs are the driving force of growth.

Agreed! Let’s all get off their backs! Perhaps one may hire me for what I can produce or provide, or perhaps I may successfully join their ranks in the near future …

Best economic advice: Don’t put your eggs in one basket.
Worst economic advice: If at first you don’t succeed, try, try again.

Perfect sense when you think about it a little bit – say, more than 30 seconds.


Ah, well, it’s all very interesting, and I could go on and on, but what’s the point? I’d just forget all the statistics, terms, and theories in a couple of hours anyway. I was always a B/C student in economics. Besides, using the concept of utility, and the fact that all of us, from LE right on up to Donald Trump, Warren Buffett, and the overlords of China, all of us have the same amount of hours in a day, I’d better get working on something more profitable.

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